Which Premier League clubs are most likely to be relegated?

Following a dramatic weekend seeing a dominant Arsenal display in Brighton, Man City comfortably seeing off Crystal Palace after an early scare, and a wasteful Liverpool side’s surprising 2-2 draw at Old Trafford, the topic on many Premier League fans’ minds has been who will win the title.

However, the state of affairs at the opposite end of the table is arguably just as compelling, with Nottingham Forest sitting in 17th, tied on points with 18th place Luton. Meanwhile, Everton’s new two-point deduction (on top of their original six-point deduction) for an additional breach of the league’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) leaves The Toffees just two points off the relegation zone in 16th – albeit with a game in hand on their competitors.

But which one of those sides is most likely to suffer the drop? Will Forest or Everton regain any of their deducted points? And is there even potential of either Burnley or Sheffield United making a miraculous escape?

Well, posted on ‘X’ by Senior Data Scientist Aurel Nazmiu, sports intelligence business Twenty First Group have outlined their final projections for the 2023/24 Premier League season – displaying each sides’ chance of survival, and how those probabilities changed following this weekend’s fixtures (as well as Everton’s latest deduction).

First off, there isn’t much hope for Sheffield and Burnley supporters. Despite Oli McBurnie’s late equalizer against Chelsea on Sunday, The Blades have more than a 99% chance of relegation, and Burnley’s 1-0 defeat to relegation rivals Everton reduced Vincent Kompany’s side’s chances of survival by four percent, giving them a 97% chance of going back down to the league they won last season.

That same fixture at Goodison Park left Everton with just a three percent chance of relegation; a rate that has subsequently risen to seven percent after their latest PSR breach.

Though, the most significant changes this weekend occurred for Luton and Forest. Following the Hatters’ dramatic home victory against Bournemouth on Saturday, Forest’s 3-1 loss away at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday evening only reinforced The Reds’ relegation fears, as they finished the weekend 10% more likely to go down, whilst The Hatters were 14% safer.

Everton’s deduction have minimally impacted these figures since, increasing Luton’s survival chances by three percent, and Nuno EspĂ­rito Santo’s side by one percent.

Yet, this still leaves Luton with a 66% chance of going down (Forest 28%), meaning the projected final outcome this season will see all three newly-promoted sides immediately relegated for the first time in the Premier League since the 1997-98 campaign.

Finally, it is worth noting that, due to Everton and Forest officially appealing their respective two and four point deductions, the sanctions could yet change. Two separate commissions are now set to review each of their cases, with the potential to uphold, increase, or decrease the initially commission’s sanctions.

Forest’s appeal must be heard before April 12, whilst an appeal on Everton’s appeal must be made before May 25.

The latter date is a week after the last round of Premier League fixtures, consequently leaving the remote possibility that sees the three relegated sides not officially decided until after the final matchday in what would be an historic event in English football.

Travis Levison | Get Football

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